There are many Doomsday scenarios we have been presented with in the run-up to the Mayan Prophecy-fuelled "end of the world" in the year 2012. Although most of them are very unlikely, there are 3 major disaster scenarios actually based on some science: "solar max", poles reversal, and asteroid/comet impact.
1. Solar maximum or "solar max" is the period of greatest solar activity in the solar cycle of the sun. During solar maximum, sunspots appear. Solar maximum is the period when the sun's magnetic field lines are the most distorted due to the magnetic field on the solar equator rotating at a slightly faster pace than at the solar poles.
The Sun has a natural cycle with a period of approximately 11 years.
The sun takes about 11 years to go from one solar maximum to another and 22 years to complete a full cycle (where the magnetic charge on the poles is the same). The last solar maximum was in 2001, and the next one should be sometime in 2012. NASA researchers announced that the next cycle would be the strongest since the historic maximum in 1958 in which the northern lights could be seen as far south as Rome, approximately 42° north of the equator.
2. Every so often, our planet's magnetic poles reverse polarity. Compass needles have always pointed north; in a reversal, they would point south. The geological records confirm that magnetic field reversals have occurred many times in the past.
During a reversal period a greatly diminished magnetic field would expose the surface of the earth to a substantial and damaging increase in solar and cosmic radiation disrupting power grids, navigation and communications equipment and damaging the flora and fauna as well.
The indirect effects of such a disaster on our civilization would go far beyond current economic crisis.
Flipping poles: Studies suggest that the Earth's magnetic field (pictured) is reducing,
of concern because it protects us from the ravages of solar wind. Credit: NASA
3. Virtually all planetary surfaces of our solar system have been heavily bombarded by meteoroids throughout their history. Earth is no exception. More than 99.8 percent of the 30,000 meteorites found on Earth to date are believed to have originated in the asteroid belt. Most researchers now believe that a large asteroid or comet hit the Earth at the end of the Cretaceous Period 66 million years ago. An environmental crisis triggered by the gigantic collision contributed to the extinctions.
On March 2, 2009 a small asteroid, designated 2009 DD45, passed the Earth at a distance of 46,000 miles, a near miss in terms of cosmic distances. Though asteroid 2009 DD45 was just about two hundred feet long, it might have impacted with the force of a huge nuclear blast.
Solar Max
Over the last few decades, western civilizations have busily sown the seeds of their own destruction. Our modern way of life, with its reliance on technology, has unwittingly exposed us to an extraordinary danger: plasma balls spewed from the surface of the sun could wipe out our power grids, with catastrophic consequences.
As electronic technologies have become more sophisticated and more embedded into everyday life, they have also become more vulnerable to solar activity.
On Earth, power lines and long-distance telephone cables might be affected by auroral currents, as happened in 1989. Radar, cell phone communications, and GPS receivers could be disrupted by solar radio noise. Experts who have studied the question say there is little to be done to protect satellites from a Carrington-class flare.
"We're moving closer and closer to the edge of a possible disaster," says Daniel Baker, a space weather expert based at the University of Colorado in Boulder, and chair of the NAS committee responsible for the report.
It is hard to conceive of the sun wiping out a large amount of our hard-earned progress. Nevertheless, it is possible. The surface of the sun is a roiling mass of plasma - charged high-energy particles - some of which escape the surface and travel through space as the solar wind. From time to time, that wind carries a billion-tonne glob of plasma, a fireball known as a coronal mass ejection. If one should hit the Earth's magnetic shield, the result could be truly devastating.
The incursion of the plasma into our atmosphere causes rapid changes in the configuration of Earth's magnetic field which, in turn, induce currents in the long wires of the power grids. The grids were not built to handle this sort of direct current electricity. The greatest danger is at the step-up and step-down transformers used to convert power from its transport voltage to domestically useful voltage. The increased DC current creates strong magnetic fields that saturate a transformer's magnetic core. The result is runaway current in the transformer's copper wiring, which rapidly heats up and melts. This is exactly what happened in the Canadian province of Quebec in March 1989, and six million people spent 9 hours without electricity. But things could get much, much worse than that.
"I believe it will be the magnetic influence produced by the Sun which will usher in what is described by our ancient ancestors as "the transition" bringing us to a new state-of-being." -- Mitch Battros
Solar Cycle 24 has begun - and it has been predicted by NASA, NOAA and ESA to be up to 50% stronger than its 'record breaking' predecessor Cycle 23 which produced the largest solar flare ever recorded. The Sun will reach its 'apex' (maximum) in late 2011 into 2012. |
FULL ARTICLE: thanks to: |  Image source: NASA |
RELATED MATERIALS:
The Universe - The Complete Season One (History Channel) (2007) - DVD
No comments:
Post a Comment